Nov 1, 2026 · By Oanh Nguyen · Broker & Loan Officer · Market Data
Every month, I pull the latest public numbers for the areas I serve in Santa Clara County and Alameda County. I put them in one place, label every source and explain what they mean for buyers, sellers and investors.
This is the November 2026 update. The newest full month of data available when I wrote it was September 2026. October numbers usually come out in mid-November. I will cover them in the December update.
A quick note before we start. A market report is not a value for your home. Medians describe a whole county or city. Your street, your home type and your home's condition matter more. If you want numbers for your neighborhood, I can pull them from MLS.
Data Date and Geography
Here is exactly what this report covers, so you can compare it fairly with other reports.
- Data month: September 2026 (released October 14–19, 2026). City pages accessed October 26, 2026.
- Counties: Santa Clara County and Alameda County.
- Cities: San Jose and Milpitas in Santa Clara County. Fremont, Hayward, San Leandro, Castro Valley and Pleasanton in Alameda County.
- Sources: the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.), the Santa Clara County Association of REALTORS® (SCCAOR) and Redfin's city housing market pages.
Different sources measure different things:
- C.A.R. county numbers cover existing single-family homes only.
- SCCAOR numbers also cover single-family homes in Santa Clara County, using their own data.
- Redfin city numbers mix houses, townhomes and condos together.
That is why the numbers in this post don't always match each other. None of them is wrong. They answer different questions. I label each one so you know what you are looking at.
Inventory: How Much Is for Sale
Supply tells you who has more negotiating room. Low supply usually favors sellers. Rising supply gives buyers more choice.
C.A.R. uses the Unsold Inventory Index. It shows how many months it would take to sell every home on the market at the current pace of sales. A lower number means a tighter market.
| Area | Unsold Inventory Index, Sept 2026 |
|---|---|
| Santa Clara County | 2.1 months |
| Alameda County | 2.2 months |
| California | 3.7 months |
Source: C.A.R. September 2026 sales and price report, released October 19, 2026. Single-family homes.
Both of my counties had a little over two months of supply. That is well below the statewide level.
But supply is growing in some places. C.A.R. reported that active listings in Santa Clara County were up 26.4% from a year earlier in September 2026. More listings means buyers can compare more homes before they decide. For sellers, it means more competition from homes just like theirs.
So the market is still tight by state standards, but it is not as tight as it was a year ago in Santa Clara County.
Price Trends
County medians (single-family homes)
| County | Median price, Sept 2026 | Change vs. Sept 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara County | $1,920,000 | -4.0% |
| Alameda County | $1,265,000 | +1.2% |
| California | $899,720 | n/a |
Source: C.A.R. September 2026 sales and price report, released October 19, 2026.
SCCAOR reported a slightly different number for Santa Clara County: a single-family median of $1,880,000 for September 2026. That was down 4% from a year earlier and up 1.6% from August. Two sources, two methods, the same general direction.
City medians (all home types)
| City | Median sale price | Change vs. a year earlier |
|---|---|---|
| Pleasanton | $1,496,787 | -3.5% |
| Fremont | $1,370,347 | -6.5% |
| San Jose | $1,349,357 | -5.0% |
| Milpitas | $1,287,887 | -9.4% |
| Castro Valley | $1,137,958 | -0.7% |
| San Leandro | $849,595 | +1.4% |
| Hayward | $830,604 | -2.3% |
Source: Redfin city housing market pages, data through September 2026, accessed October 26, 2026. All home types.
Most city medians were lower than a year earlier. San Leandro was the one city in this list with a higher median.
A word of caution. A median can move for two reasons. Prices can change, or a different mix of homes can sell. If more condos sold this year than last, the median drops even if every condo held its value. That is why I always look at the homes behind the numbers before I tell a client anything about their own home.
For a deeper look at prices by city, see my post on San Jose and East Bay median home prices.
Days on Market and Sale-to-List
Speed and price tell you how buyers are reacting right now.
County speed (single-family homes)
C.A.R. reported a median of 11 days on market for single-family homes in Santa Clara County in September 2026 and 13 days in Alameda County. The statewide median was 29 days.
SCCAOR uses an average instead of a median. It reported single-family homes in Santa Clara County averaged 27 days on market in September 2026, compared with 25 days a year earlier. Averages run higher than medians because a few slow homes pull the average up.
City speed and price (all home types)
| City | Sale-to-list price | Homes sold over list | Median days on market |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Leandro | 105.0% | 68.1% | 16 |
| Castro Valley | 103.7% | 58.6% | 16 |
| Hayward | 101.4% | 52.2% | 22 |
| San Jose | 101.1% | 46.4% | 22 |
| Fremont | 101.0% | 46.6% | 21 |
| Milpitas | 100.9% | 45.4% | 20 |
| Pleasanton | 98.4% | 24.3% | 36 |
Source: Redfin city housing market pages, data through September 2026, accessed October 26, 2026. All home types.
How to read this table:
- Sale-to-list price compares the final price with the asking price. 101% means a home listed at $1,000,000 sold for about $1,010,000 on average.
- Homes sold over list is the share of sales that closed above asking.
- Median days on market is the middle number of days homes took to go under contract.
Six of these seven cities sold above list on average. Pleasanton was the exception, with homes selling a little under list and taking longer.
Statewide, C.A.R. reported a sale-to-list ratio of 98.8% in September 2026, up from 98.2% a year earlier.
For more on bidding and competition, see my post on Bay Area homes selling over asking.
Mortgage Context
Mortgage rates shape what buyers can afford and how many buyers are shopping. When rates move, monthly payments move with them, even if prices stay the same.
I don't quote rates in my blog posts. Rates change daily and depend on each borrower's credit, down payment, loan type and property. A rate on a website is not a quote for you.
If you want to follow the national trend, Freddie Mac publishes a weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. It is a national average, not a local quote. For your own numbers, talk with a licensed loan officer who can review your full situation.
I am also a licensed loan officer (NMLS 2020335). I can walk you through how financing fits your plans. This post is not a loan offer or a rate quote.
My post on buying now or waiting for rates covers how to think about timing without trying to predict rates.
What It Means for You
If you are selling
- Price for today, not last spring. Most city medians were lower than a year earlier. Recent nearby sales matter more than old peaks.
- Expect more competition in Santa Clara County. With active listings up 26.4% from a year earlier, buyers have more homes to compare. Condition, staging and photos matter.
- Well-prepared homes still move fast. A median of 11 to 13 days on market at the county level shows that buyers act quickly on the right home.
- Plan for the season. Fall and the holidays can change who is shopping. Talk with me about timing before you pick a list date.
My posts on what your home is worth and selling now or waiting go deeper.
If you are buying
- You may have more choice. Rising supply in Santa Clara County means more homes to compare.
- Competition depends on the city. San Leandro and Castro Valley showed the most bidding. Pleasanton showed the least. Plan your offer strategy around the specific area and price range.
- Get your financing ready first. A strong pre-approval helps you act fast when the right home comes up.
- Don't wait on a perfect forecast. No one can time the market. Buy when the home, the payment and your plans line up.
If you are investing
- Run the numbers on each property. County medians don't tell you rent, expenses or cash flow.
- Watch days on market. Homes that sit longer can create room to negotiate. Ask why a home has not sold.
- Check local rules. Rent rules, permits and HOA rules vary by city and building. Confirm them before you buy, and talk with your CPA or attorney about tax and legal questions.
A Hypothetical Example
This example is made up to show how to use a report like this. It is not based on any real home or client.
A homeowner in a South Bay townhome reads that San Jose's median dropped 5.0% from a year earlier. They worry their home lost value.
We look closer. The Redfin number mixes all home types. When I pull MLS sales of similar townhomes in their complex and the surrounding area, the picture is different. A few similar units sold near list in the last 90 days. Two are on the market now.
The citywide number gave a general direction. The local sales gave the answer that mattered for their decision.
That is how I want you to use a market update: as context, not as your home's price tag.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the Bay Area a buyer's market or a seller's market right now?
It depends on the city and price range. Through September 2026, both Santa Clara and Alameda counties had about two months of supply, per C.A.R. That leans toward sellers. But rising listings in Santa Clara County give buyers more choice than a year ago.
Are Bay Area home prices dropping?
Most city medians in this report were lower than a year earlier, per Redfin. Santa Clara County's single-family median was down 4.0%, and Alameda County's was up 1.2%, per C.A.R. A median can also move because a different mix of homes sold. I don't predict prices.
How fast are homes selling?
The median single-family home went under contract in 11 days in Santa Clara County and 13 days in Alameda County in September 2026, per C.A.R. City numbers from Redfin ranged from 16 to 36 days.
Why are there different numbers for the same county?
C.A.R. and SCCAOR each use their own data and methods. Redfin mixes all home types. I label every source so you can compare like with like.
When will October 2026 numbers be out?
SCCAOR and C.A.R. usually publish the prior month's data in mid-November. I will include it in my December update.
Can you give me numbers for my ZIP code?
Yes. I can pull MLS data for any ZIP code I serve, split by home type, so you see how homes like yours are selling.
The Bottom Line
The latest data, through September 2026, shows a market that is still competitive but shifting. Supply in Santa Clara and Alameda counties is a little over two months, well below the state. Homes in six of seven cities I serve sold above list on average. At the same time, most city medians were lower than a year earlier, and Santa Clara County had 26.4% more active listings than a year before.
For sellers, that means preparation and smart pricing matter more. For buyers, it means a little more choice in some areas. For investors, it means doing the math on each property.
Want numbers for your street, not just your county? Request a neighborhood-specific market review, and I will pull the latest MLS sales for homes like yours.
Sources
- C.A.R., "September home sales and price report," released October 19, 2026: https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2026releases/sept2026sales
- SCCAOR, "Santa Clara County Housing Statistics, Month of September," published October 14, 2026: https://www.sccaor.com/santa-clara-county-housing-statistics-month-of-september/
- Redfin housing market pages (data through September 2026, accessed October 26, 2026): San Jose https://www.redfin.com/city/17420/CA/San-Jose/housing-market · Milpitas https://www.redfin.com/city/12204/CA/Milpitas/housing-market · Fremont https://www.redfin.com/city/6671/CA/Fremont/housing-market · Hayward https://www.redfin.com/city/8439/CA/Hayward/housing-market · San Leandro https://www.redfin.com/city/17447/CA/San-Leandro/housing-market · Castro Valley https://www.redfin.com/city/21841/CA/Castro-Valley/housing-market · Pleasanton https://www.redfin.com/city/14986/CA/Pleasanton/housing-market
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey (national weekly averages): https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
Request a neighborhood-specific market review. Call or text me at 408-780-1188, or email onrealtygroup@gmail.com.
Oanh Nguyen · Broker & Loan Officer · On Realty Group, brokered by LPT Realty · BRE #02133991 · NMLS 2020335
Equal Housing Opportunity.
Disclaimer: This post is general information only, not an appraisal or legal, tax or financial advice; data comes from the public sources linked above, is believed reliable but not guaranteed, and can change at any time.