Oct 30, 2026 · By Oanh Nguyen · Broker & Loan Officer · Selling
Homeowners ask me this all the time. Usually the question behind it is, "Will I get more if I wait?"
I wish I could tell you. No one can. Not me, not the news and not any website. Forecasts change often, and the market rarely follows them neatly.
So I don't try to predict. I help you decide based on what you can know: your own plans, your equity, your costs and what the local data says right now.
In this post, I will walk you through the same decision framework I use with my sellers. All market data runs through September 2026, and every number has a source.
Start With You, Not the Market
The best time to sell is usually tied to your life, not the calendar. Ask yourself:
- Do I need to move? A new job, a growing family, health needs, a divorce or caring for a parent can set the timeline for you.
- Does my home still fit? Too big, too small, too far from work or too many stairs?
- Am I ready to let go? Selling is emotional. Being ready matters.
- Do I know where I am going next? Buying, renting, moving in with family or leaving the area?
If your life says "move," trying to time the market can cost you more in stress, rent or missed chances than it gains. If your life says "stay," there is no rush to sell just because prices are high.
Know Your Equity
Equity is the value of your home minus what you owe. It is the starting point for almost every selling decision.
To estimate it:
- Get a realistic value. Use recent comparable sales, not an online estimate. My post on how much your home is worth explains why.
- Get your loan payoff. Ask your lender for a payoff amount, including any home equity line.
- Subtract estimated selling costs. These can include commissions, escrow and title fees, transfer taxes, repairs and any buyer credits. Commissions are negotiable.
What is left is your estimated net. That number tells you what you can do next: buy another home, pay down debt, invest or simply have a cushion.
I can prepare an estimated net sheet for you. For taxes on the sale, talk with a CPA. The IRS covers the basics in Publication 523, linked below.
Count the Cost of Waiting
Waiting is not free. Every month you hold a home you plan to sell, you keep paying for it.
Carrying costs can include:
- Mortgage payment
- Property taxes
- Homeowners insurance
- HOA dues, if any
- Utilities
- Maintenance and repairs
- Rent or a second payment, if you have already moved
Here is a hypothetical example, not a real home. Say your monthly carrying costs add up to $6,000. Waiting six months to sell costs about $36,000. For waiting to pay off, the home would need to sell for at least that much more after six months, on top of covering any added repairs and costs.
Waiting can make sense. Just make sure you count what it costs.
Read the Local Market, Not the Headlines
National headlines rarely describe the cities I serve. Here is what the local data showed through September 2026.
Supply (C.A.R., single-family homes):
| Area | Unsold Inventory Index, Sept 2026 | Median days on market |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara County | 2.1 months | 11 days |
| Alameda County | 2.2 months | 13 days |
| California | 3.7 months | 29 days |
Source: C.A.R. September 2026 sales and price report, released October 19, 2026.
The Unsold Inventory Index shows how long it would take to sell every home for sale at the current pace. A lower number means a tighter market. Both of my counties were well below the state.
But supply is rising in some places. C.A.R. reported that active listings in Santa Clara County were up 26.4% from a year earlier. More listings means more choice for buyers and more competition for sellers.
Prices were mixed. C.A.R. reported Santa Clara County's single-family median at $1,920,000, down 4.0% from a year earlier. Alameda County's was $1,265,000, up 1.2%. SCCAOR reported a Santa Clara County median of $1,880,000, down 4% from a year earlier and up 1.6% from August.
Sale-to-list prices varied by city. Through September 2026, Redfin reported sale-to-list prices from 98.4% in Pleasanton to 105.0% in San Leandro across the cities I serve.
| City | Sale-to-list price | Median days on market |
|---|---|---|
| San Leandro | 105.0% | 16 |
| Castro Valley | 103.7% | 16 |
| Hayward | 101.4% | 22 |
| San Jose | 101.1% | 22 |
| Fremont | 101.0% | 21 |
| Milpitas | 100.9% | 20 |
| Pleasanton | 98.4% | 36 |
Source: Redfin city housing market pages, data through September 2026, accessed October 26, 2026. All home types.
What does this tell you? Not where prices are going. It tells you how buyers are acting now. In most of these cities, well-priced homes were still selling near or above list, fairly quickly. See my posts on median home prices and homes selling over asking for more.
The Trade-Offs of Selling Now
Possible upsides:
- You lock in today's price instead of guessing about tomorrow's.
- You stop paying carrying costs on a home you plan to leave.
- You can move on with your plans, such as a new job, a new home or a new city.
- In a tight-supply market, a well-prepared home may face less competition than it will if listings keep rising.
Possible downsides:
- You may sell before your home or area gains more value.
- If you are buying, you will be buying in the same market.
- You may need to move quickly or find temporary housing.
- If you have a low-rate mortgage, your next loan may cost more. Talk with a loan officer about your options.
The Trade-Offs of Waiting
Possible upsides:
- More time to prepare, repair, stage and plan.
- More time to save for your next home.
- Your home or area may gain value. Or it may not.
- You keep a home you know and an existing mortgage.
Possible downsides:
- You keep paying carrying costs.
- Prices may stay flat or fall.
- More homes may come on the market, so you may face more competition.
- Your plans may change, and the right next home may be gone.
Notice that "prices may rise" and "prices may fall" both appear on the waiting side. That is the point. Waiting is a bet. Selling now is a known result.
Season and Timing
Many people ask whether spring is always the best time to sell. Spring often brings more buyers. It also often brings more listings.
Fall and winter can have fewer buyers, but also fewer competing homes. Serious buyers still shop in the cooler months.
In my experience, a home that is priced well and presented well can sell in any season. If you are flexible, I can look at the seasonal pattern in your exact ZIP code and home type before you choose a launch date.
If You Are Selling and Buying
Many of my sellers are also buyers. That adds a second set of decisions.
- Sell first: You know your net before you buy, but you may need short-term housing.
- Buy first: You move once, but you may need to qualify for two homes or use a bridge option.
- Line them up: Sell and buy in the same window, with contingencies or a rent-back to connect the two.
Each path has costs and risks. Because I am both a broker and a licensed loan officer, I can help you compare the options with real numbers, or work with your lender. Loan options depend on your qualifications.
A Decision Checklist
Answer these honestly. They will point you in the right direction.
- Do I need or want to move in the next 12 months?
- Do I know my estimated net after selling costs?
- Do I know my monthly carrying costs?
- Do I have a plan for where I will live next?
- If buying, have I talked with a loan officer about financing?
- Is my home ready to sell, or does it need work first?
- Have I seen recent sales and current listings for homes like mine?
- Have I talked with a CPA about taxes on the sale?
- Could I handle it if prices dropped while I waited?
- Would I regret waiting if the right next home came up today?
If most of your answers point to "ready," selling now may fit. If many point to "not yet," waiting and preparing may be the better choice. Both are valid.
A Hypothetical Example
This example is made up to show the process. It is not based on any real home or client.
Two homeowners, both thinking about selling.
The first is relocating for a job in four months. Their carrying costs are high, and they don't want to manage the home from out of state. They prepare the home, list it and sell. They don't know if prices will rise later, and they are fine with that.
The second loves their home and has no reason to move. Their payment is comfortable. They decide to wait, keep up with maintenance and check the market again in a year.
Both made a sound choice. Neither tried to guess the market.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is now a good time to sell in the Bay Area?
It depends on your plans. Through September 2026, both Santa Clara and Alameda counties had about two months of supply, per C.A.R., and homes in most cities I serve sold near or above list. But your timeline and equity matter most.
Will home prices go up next year?
No one knows. I don't predict prices. I show you current sales and listings so you can decide with facts.
Should I wait for spring to sell?
Spring often brings more buyers and more listings. A well-priced, well-prepared home can sell in any season. I can check seasonal patterns for your ZIP code.
What does it cost to wait?
Your carrying costs: mortgage, taxes, insurance, HOA dues, utilities and upkeep. Multiply by the months you plan to wait. Your home would need to gain at least that much to come out ahead.
Should I sell before or after I buy?
It depends on your finances, your comfort with risk and the market. Each option has trade-offs. I can help you compare them with real numbers.
I have a low mortgage rate. Should I keep my home?
That is a personal and financial decision. Your next loan may cost more. Talk with a loan officer about your numbers, and a CPA or financial advisor about the bigger picture.
Are more homes coming on the market?
In some areas, yes. C.A.R. reported active listings in Santa Clara County up 26.4% from a year earlier in September 2026.
Do I owe taxes when I sell?
It depends on your situation. Talk with a CPA. IRS Publication 523 explains the basics. I don't give tax advice.
Can I rent my home instead of selling?
Some owners do. Renting has its own costs, rules and risks. Talk with a CPA and an attorney before deciding, and check local rental rules.
The Bottom Line
Don't try to time the market. Time your life.
Start with your plans, your equity and your carrying costs. Then look at local data, not national headlines. Through September 2026, the counties I serve still had tight supply, but listings were rising in Santa Clara County and prices were mixed.
Selling now gives you a known result. Waiting is a bet that can go either way. Both can be smart, depending on your situation. I never promise what prices will do. I give you the facts and a clear plan, and the decision stays yours.
Not sure which way to go? Let's talk through your timing and options, with no pressure either way.
Sources
- C.A.R., "September home sales and price report," released October 19, 2026: https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2026releases/sept2026sales
- SCCAOR, "Santa Clara County Housing Statistics, Month of September," published October 14, 2026: https://www.sccaor.com/santa-clara-county-housing-statistics-month-of-september/
- Redfin housing market pages (data through September 2026, accessed October 26, 2026): https://www.redfin.com/city/17447/CA/San-Leandro/housing-market · https://www.redfin.com/city/21841/CA/Castro-Valley/housing-market · https://www.redfin.com/city/8439/CA/Hayward/housing-market · https://www.redfin.com/city/17420/CA/San-Jose/housing-market · https://www.redfin.com/city/6671/CA/Fremont/housing-market · https://www.redfin.com/city/12204/CA/Milpitas/housing-market · https://www.redfin.com/city/14986/CA/Pleasanton/housing-market
- IRS Publication 523, Selling Your Home: https://www.irs.gov/publications/p523
Let's talk about your timing and options. Call or text me at 408-780-1188, or email onrealtygroup@gmail.com.
Oanh Nguyen · Broker & Loan Officer · On Realty Group, brokered by LPT Realty · BRE #02133991 · NMLS 2020335
Equal Housing Opportunity.
Disclaimer: This post is general information only, not legal, tax, financial or investment advice, and not a loan offer or commitment to lend; data comes from the public sources linked above, is believed reliable but not guaranteed, and can change at any time.