Oct 25, 2026 · By Oanh Nguyen · Broker & Loan Officer · Market Data
This is the question I get right after "What do homes cost?" Buyers want to know if they will have to compete. Sellers want to know if they will get more than their asking price.
Short answer: in many of the cities I serve, yes. Homes are still selling above list price on average. But it is not the same everywhere. And it is not the same for every home.
In this post, I will show you the latest public data for each city, explain what it means and share how I help buyers compete and sellers price well. All data runs through September 2026.
The Numbers by City
Three numbers tell you most of what you need to know about competition:
- Sale-to-list price. The sale price compared with the list price, on average.
- Homes sold over list. The share of homes that sold for more than asking.
- Median days on market. How long a typical home took to go under contract.
Here they are for each city I serve:
| City | Sale-to-list price | Homes sold over list | Median days on market |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Leandro | 105.0% | 68.1% | 16 |
| Castro Valley | 103.7% | 58.6% | 16 |
| Hayward | 101.4% | 52.2% | 22 |
| San Jose | 101.1% | 46.4% | 22 |
| Fremont | 101.0% | 46.6% | 21 |
| Milpitas | 100.9% | 45.4% | 20 |
| Pleasanton | 98.4% | 24.3% | 36 |
Source: Redfin city housing market pages, data through September 2026, accessed October 26, 2026. All home types.
How to Read These Numbers
Sale-to-list price. A ratio of 101% means a home listed at $1,000,000 sold for about $1,010,000 on average. Over 100% means buyers paid above asking, on average. Under 100% means they paid a bit less.
Homes sold over list. If this is 50%, about half of all homes sold above their asking price. The other half sold at or below it.
Days on market. A lower number means homes are going under contract faster. A higher number means buyers have more time to decide.
Put together, these three numbers paint a picture. In San Leandro and Castro Valley, homes sold well above list on average, most sold over asking and the typical home went under contract in about two weeks. In Pleasanton, homes sold slightly under list on average and took longer.
The Bigger Picture
It helps to compare these cities with wider trends.
- California: C.A.R. reports a statewide sale-to-list ratio of 98.8% in September 2026, up from 98.2% a year earlier. The statewide median time to sell a single-family home was 29 days.
- Santa Clara County: SCCAOR reports single-family homes averaged 27 days on market in September 2026, compared with 25 days a year earlier.
So most cities I serve ran hotter than the state as a whole. Pleasanton was the exception in this period.
How These Numbers Changed From a Year Ago
Redfin also compares each city with a year earlier. The changes were mixed.
- Busier than a year ago: San Leandro's sale-to-list rose 2.7 points and Castro Valley's rose 4.1 points. Their days on market fell to 16 from 27 in both cities.
- A bit cooler than a year ago: San Jose's sale-to-list dipped 0.49 points and Milpitas's dipped 1.1 points. Pleasanton's days on market rose to 36 from 24.
- About the same: Fremont's sale-to-list was up 0.3 points. Hayward's was up 1.1 points.
Source: Redfin city housing market pages, data through September 2026.
The takeaway: the market is not moving in one direction everywhere. Each city, and each price range, has its own pace.
Why Averages Can Fool You
Averages hide a lot. In the same month, on the same street, you might see:
- A clean, well-priced home that draws several offers.
- A home that needs work, or is priced high, that sits for weeks.
Both sales go into the same average. So the city number does not tell you what will happen with one specific home.
There is another thing to know. Some sellers price below what they expect, to draw more buyers. That pushes the sale-to-list ratio up. It does not always mean the home "sold for more than it was worth." It may mean the list price was set low on purpose.
What Tends to Draw More Offers
From my experience, these homes usually get the most attention:
- Priced in line with recent sales. Buyers and their agents check the comparable sales.
- Clean and move-in ready. Many buyers prefer homes that need little work right away.
- Well presented. Good photos, staging and clear information help a listing stand out. I have run a staging company for about 10 years, and presentation matters.
- Easy to understand. Disclosures and reports available up front help buyers feel confident.
Homes that need major work, have unusual layouts or are priced well above recent sales often take longer.
How I Help Buyers Compete
Competing does not always mean paying the most. Sellers look at the whole offer. Here is how I help buyers put their best foot forward.
- Get fully pre-approved first. Sellers compare offers. A strong pre-approval matters.
- Study the recent sales, not the list price. I pull comparable sales so you know what similar homes actually sold for.
- Read the disclosures early. Some sellers provide inspection reports up front. Reading them before you offer can let you write a cleaner offer, if you are comfortable with what they show.
- Understand the seller's needs. Timing can matter as much as price. I ask the listing agent what matters to the seller.
- Know your walk-away number. Decide it before the offer deadline, not during it.
- Keep your contingencies thoughtful. Contingencies protect you. Talk them through with me before you decide on any changes, and never give up protection you need.
What a Multiple-Offer Situation Looks Like
If you have never been through one, here is how it often works. Every listing is different, so the listing agent's instructions always come first.
- The home lists. The listing may say offers are due on a certain date, or that offers will be reviewed as they come in.
- Buyers tour and review documents. This is the time to read disclosures and any reports.
- Offers come in. Each one includes a price, a financing plan, contingencies and a closing timeline.
- The seller reviews. The seller may accept one offer, counter one or more, or ask buyers for their best terms.
- One offer is accepted. Escrow opens, and the contract timelines begin.
Knowing these steps ahead of time takes a lot of stress out of the process. You can plan your schedule, line up your documents and decide your terms calmly.
Questions I Ask the Listing Agent
Before my buyers write an offer, I usually ask the listing agent:
- Is there an offer date, or will offers be reviewed as they arrive?
- Are disclosures and reports available now?
- Does the seller have a preferred closing date or need time after closing?
- Is there anything else important to the seller?
The answers help me shape an offer that fits what the seller needs, not just the price.
How I Help Sellers Price Well
For sellers, these numbers are a reminder: pricing matters.
- Start with the comparable sales. Your price should reflect what similar homes nearby sold for recently.
- Watch the current competition. What else is for sale at your price right now?
- Prepare the home. Repairs, cleaning and staging can help buyers see the home at its best.
- Plan your timeline. Days on market vary by city and season, so plan with that in mind.
A home priced in line with the market tends to draw the most buyers. A home priced far above it often sits, and then needs a price cut.
A Hypothetical Example
This example is made up to show the process. It is not based on any real home or client.
Two similar homes list on the same street in the same month. One is priced in line with recent sales and is clean and staged. It draws several offers and sells above list.
The other is priced well above recent sales and needs updates. It sits for several weeks. The seller then lowers the price and sells below the first home.
Both sales go into that month's city average. Neither one tells the whole story alone.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are homes in San Jose still selling over asking?
On average, yes. Redfin reported a 101.1% sale-to-list price for San Jose through September 2026, with 46.4% of homes selling over list.
Which city I serve was the most competitive?
By these measures, San Leandro and Castro Valley were the most competitive in this period. San Leandro had a 105.0% sale-to-list and 68.1% of homes sold over list, per Redfin.
Is the market cooling?
It depends on the city. Some cities were busier than a year earlier and some were a bit cooler. I don't predict where the market goes next. I show you the latest data.
How much over asking should I offer?
There is no rule. It depends on the home, the recent comparable sales and the competition. I help you look at the data for that specific home before you decide.
Does selling above list mean a home is overpriced?
Not always. Some sellers list below what they expect. The final price reflects what buyers were willing to pay.
How long will it take to sell my home?
Median days on market ranged from 16 to 36 across these cities through September 2026, per Redfin. Your timeline depends on your price, condition and the season.
Are condos as competitive as single-family homes?
It varies by city, building and price range. The Redfin numbers in this post mix all home types together. I can pull MLS data split by home type for any ZIP code I serve, so you can see how condos, townhomes and houses are each selling right now.
Should I write a letter to the seller?
Many agents and sellers avoid personal letters because of fair housing concerns. I focus on the terms of your offer instead. That is what the seller should be comparing.
What if I lose a bidding war?
It is common, and it is not the end. Each offer teaches you something. I review what happened with you and adjust the plan.
Do I have to waive contingencies to win?
No. Contingencies protect you. Some buyers adjust them based on their comfort and the information they have. Talk it through with me, and with an attorney if you have legal questions.
The Bottom Line
The market in most of the cities I serve is still competitive. Through September 2026, homes in six of the seven cities sold above list price on average, per Redfin. Pleasanton was the exception, with homes selling slightly under list and taking longer.
But averages are only a starting point. Each home, price range and season is different. A well-priced, well-presented home can draw strong interest in almost any market. A home priced too high can sit in even the busiest one.
I look at the data for the exact homes you want, every time. I never promise you will win a home or that a price will hold. I promise to give you the facts so you can decide.
Sources
- Redfin housing market pages (data through September 2026, accessed October 26, 2026): https://www.redfin.com/city/17447/CA/San-Leandro/housing-market · https://www.redfin.com/city/21841/CA/Castro-Valley/housing-market · https://www.redfin.com/city/8439/CA/Hayward/housing-market · https://www.redfin.com/city/17420/CA/San-Jose/housing-market · https://www.redfin.com/city/6671/CA/Fremont/housing-market · https://www.redfin.com/city/12204/CA/Milpitas/housing-market · https://www.redfin.com/city/14986/CA/Pleasanton/housing-market
- C.A.R., "September home sales and price report," released October 19, 2026: https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2026releases/sept2026sales
- SCCAOR, "Santa Clara County Housing Statistics, Month of September," published October 14, 2026: https://www.sccaor.com/santa-clara-county-housing-statistics-month-of-september/
Want the latest offer data for a home you like? Call or text me at 408-780-1188, or email onrealtygroup@gmail.com.
Oanh Nguyen · Broker & Loan Officer · On Realty Group, brokered by LPT Realty · BRE #02133991 · NMLS 2020335
Equal Housing Opportunity.
Disclaimer: This post is general information only, not legal, tax, financial or investment advice; data comes from the public sources linked above, is believed reliable but not guaranteed, and can change at any time.