Oct 31, 2026 · By Oanh Nguyen · Broker & Loan Officer · Selling
Every seller wants two things: the most money possible and a smooth sale. Price is where those two goals meet.
Price too high, and buyers skip your home. It sits, and you may end up cutting the price. Price too low, and you may leave money behind, unless the market pushes the price back up.
The goal is not to guess a number. It is to choose a strategy. In this post, I will show you how I build a pricing strategy for my sellers: the right comparable sales, the current competition, buyer search bands, the risks of overpricing and a plan for reviewing the price after launch.
All market data runs through September 2026, and every number has a source.
Value vs. List Price
These are two different things.
- Value is what a buyer will likely pay for your home in today's market. It comes from recent comparable sales, adjusted for your home's condition and features.
- List price is a marketing decision. It is the number you choose to put in front of buyers to start the conversation.
Your list price can sit at, a little below or a little above the value range. Where you place it depends on your goals, the competition and how fast homes are selling. My post on how much your home is worth covers the value side. This post covers the strategy side.
Step 1: Choose the Right Comparable Sales
Comparable sales, or "comps," are the foundation. The wrong comps lead to the wrong price.
Good comps are:
- Recent. Usually within the last three to six months. In a fast-moving market, the last 60 to 90 days count most.
- Close by. Same neighborhood or area, with similar street conditions.
- Similar. Same home type, similar size, age, lot, bedroom and bath count, and layout.
- Similar condition. A remodeled home and an original one are not true comps without adjustment.
Common comp mistakes:
- Using the highest sale on the street. That home may have been larger, remodeled or on a better lot.
- Mixing home types. A townhome is not a comp for a detached home.
- Ignoring condition. "Same size" is not "same value" if one needs a new roof.
- Using old sales. A sale from a year ago may not reflect today's buyers.
I pull comps from MLS and adjust for differences. Then I look at the pattern, not one sale.
Step 2: Study the Active Competition
Comps tell you what buyers paid. The active market tells you what buyers can choose from today.
Buyers will compare your home with every similar home for sale right now. So I look at:
- Active listings. What is for sale at nearby prices? How does your home compare?
- Pending sales. What just went under contract, and how fast?
- Expired or withdrawn listings. What did buyers pass on, and at what price?
- Price cuts. Which homes had to lower their price, and by how much?
Competition matters more when supply rises. C.A.R. reported that active listings in Santa Clara County were up 26.4% from a year earlier in September 2026. More homes for sale means buyers compare more carefully.
Supply was still tight overall. C.A.R. reported an Unsold Inventory Index of 2.1 months in Santa Clara County and 2.2 months in Alameda County, compared with 3.7 months statewide.
Step 3: Understand Buyer Search Bands
Most buyers find homes online first. And most search by price range, using filters with round numbers.
That creates price "bands." Here is a hypothetical example. A home listed at $1,510,000 may not show up for a buyer searching "up to $1,500,000." That same home listed at $1,499,000 shows up for buyers searching up to $1.5 million and for buyers searching from $1.4 million to $1.5 million.
A few principles:
- Know where buyers search. Many buyers set filters at round numbers, such as every $50,000 or $100,000.
- Avoid sitting just above a band. A small difference in list price can mean a big difference in who sees your home.
- Think about the buyer who will love it. What would they search for? What price range are they shopping?
Search bands are not a magic trick. But they can help more of the right buyers see your home in the first week, when interest is often highest.
Step 4: Read the Local Pace
How fast homes sell, and how close to list price, tells you how much room you have.
| City | Sale-to-list price | Homes sold over list | Median days on market |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Leandro | 105.0% | 68.1% | 16 |
| Castro Valley | 103.7% | 58.6% | 16 |
| Hayward | 101.4% | 52.2% | 22 |
| San Jose | 101.1% | 46.4% | 22 |
| Fremont | 101.0% | 46.6% | 21 |
| Milpitas | 100.9% | 45.4% | 20 |
| Pleasanton | 98.4% | 24.3% | 36 |
Source: Redfin city housing market pages, data through September 2026, accessed October 26, 2026. All home types.
For comparison, C.A.R. reported a statewide sale-to-list ratio of 98.8% in September 2026.
These are city averages. Your home type, price range and condition can tell a different story. That is why I pull the same numbers for homes like yours, in your area, before choosing a price. For more on competition, see my post on homes selling over asking.
Three Common Pricing Strategies
1. Price at market value
You list within the range the comps support. This often draws steady interest and offers close to list. It suits most homes and most sellers.
2. Price slightly below value to draw competition
Some sellers list a little under the value range to bring in more buyers and, possibly, multiple offers. This can work in fast markets. But it carries risk. If the competition does not show up, you may get offers at or near your list price. Only use this strategy if you are comfortable with that outcome, and talk with me about how offers will be reviewed.
3. Price above value to "leave room"
Some sellers want to start high and negotiate down. In my experience, this usually backfires. Buyers and their agents check the comps too. An overpriced home often gets fewer showings, sits longer and may sell for less than it would have with the right price from day one.
The Real Cost of Overpricing
Overpricing feels safe. It is not. Here is what often happens:
- Fewer showings. Buyers compare your home with similar homes and skip it.
- Days on market add up. Buyers notice a home that has been sitting and wonder what is wrong with it.
- You help sell other homes. Your overpriced listing can make competing homes look like a better deal.
- Price cuts. You lower the price later, often after the first wave of buyers has moved on.
- Appraisal risk. Even if a buyer agrees to a high price, the home may not appraise. The buyer's lender bases the loan on the appraisal, which can lead to renegotiation.
The first two weeks on the market usually bring the most attention. A price that misses that window is hard to recover from.
Underpricing: Is It a Risk Too?
Yes, but it is a different risk. Pricing below value can lead to multiple offers that push the price up. It can also lead to an offer near list price if few buyers show up.
To protect yourself:
- Base the price on solid comps, not just a hope for a bidding war.
- Plan how you will review offers, such as setting an offer date or reviewing as they come in.
- Know your bottom line before offers arrive.
- Remember that you are not required to accept any offer.
Condition and Presentation Affect Price
The same home can support different prices depending on how it looks and works.
- Repairs reduce the reasons buyers have to offer less.
- Staging and photos help buyers see the home's best use. I also run a staging and design company, OnStage, so I see how presentation changes buyer response.
- Pre-listing reports help buyers feel confident and can lead to cleaner offers.
See my post on 10 things to do before selling for the full prep sequence.
Your Price Review Plan
Pricing is not "set it and forget it." I agree on a review plan with every seller before launch.
Week 1: I track showings, online views, saves, open house traffic and feedback from buyers' agents.
Week 2: If interest is strong, we prepare for offers. If showings are low, we look at why: photos, condition, price or timing.
Weeks 3–4: If the home is not drawing offers and similar homes are selling, the market is telling us something. We discuss a price change or other adjustments, based on data, not emotion.
Agreeing on this plan up front makes later decisions easier. You know what we are watching and why.
A Hypothetical Example
This example is made up to show the process. It is not based on any real home or client.
A seller's comps support a value range of about $1.46 million to $1.52 million. Two similar homes are for sale: one at $1.55 million that has sat for five weeks, and one at $1.49 million that went pending in eight days.
The seller first wants to list at $1.58 million to "leave room." We look at the data together. The $1.55 million home is still sitting. Buyers in this area often search up to $1.5 million.
The seller chooses to list at $1,499,000, with a review plan in place. The home draws steady showings in its first week. The final price is up to the market. But the seller has given the home the best chance to reach the most buyers at launch.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I know what price to list my home at?
Start with recent comparable sales, adjusted for your home's condition and features. Then look at current competition and how fast homes like yours are selling. I prepare a CMA and a pricing strategy for each seller.
Should I price high and negotiate down?
Usually not. Overpriced homes often get fewer showings, sit longer and may sell for less in the end. Buyers and their agents check the comps.
Will pricing low get me multiple offers?
It can, but it is not guaranteed. If few buyers show up, you may get offers near list price. Only use this strategy if you are comfortable with that outcome.
How much do Bay Area homes sell over asking?
It varies by city. Through September 2026, Redfin reported sale-to-list prices from 98.4% in Pleasanton to 105.0% in San Leandro, all home types.
What if my home doesn't appraise at the sale price?
The buyer's lender bases the loan on the appraisal. That can lead to renegotiation, a buyer paying the difference or another outcome, depending on the contract. Pricing from solid comps lowers this risk.
How long should I wait before lowering my price?
It depends on showings, feedback and how similar homes are selling. I set a review plan with each seller before launch, with check-ins in the first two to four weeks.
Do online estimates help with pricing?
As a first look only. Redfin reports a median error of 6.68% for off-market California homes, as of October 29, 2026. Comps and a walk-through are far more reliable.
Do improvements let me price higher?
Repairs, cleaning and staging can help a home sell faster and draw stronger offers. Large remodels don't always return their full cost. Talk with me before starting big projects.
Is the commission included in my list price?
No. The list price is what you ask buyers to pay. Commissions are part of your selling costs and are negotiable. I can prepare an estimated net sheet.
Can you guarantee my sale price?
No. No one can. I give you the data, a clear strategy and a plan to adjust if needed.
The Bottom Line
Pricing is a strategy, not a guess. Start with the right comps. Study the active competition. Think about how buyers search. Then pick a strategy that fits your goals and the local pace, and agree on a review plan before you launch.
Through September 2026, homes in six of the seven cities I serve sold above list on average, per Redfin, but active listings in Santa Clara County were up 26.4% from a year earlier, per C.A.R. That makes pricing right from day one more important, not less.
I never guarantee a sale price. I do give you a clear, data-backed plan so you don't leave money on the table or leave your home sitting.
Want a second opinion on your price? Request a pricing strategy review, and I will walk you through the comps, the competition and my recommendation.
Sources
- Redfin housing market pages (data through September 2026, accessed October 26, 2026): https://www.redfin.com/city/17447/CA/San-Leandro/housing-market · https://www.redfin.com/city/21841/CA/Castro-Valley/housing-market · https://www.redfin.com/city/8439/CA/Hayward/housing-market · https://www.redfin.com/city/17420/CA/San-Jose/housing-market · https://www.redfin.com/city/6671/CA/Fremont/housing-market · https://www.redfin.com/city/12204/CA/Milpitas/housing-market · https://www.redfin.com/city/14986/CA/Pleasanton/housing-market
- C.A.R., "September home sales and price report," released October 19, 2026: https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2026releases/sept2026sales
- Redfin, "Redfin Estimate" accuracy page (last updated October 29, 2026, accessed October 29, 2026): https://www.redfin.com/redfin-estimate
Request a pricing strategy review. Call or text me at 408-780-1188, or email onrealtygroup@gmail.com.
Oanh Nguyen · Broker & Loan Officer · On Realty Group, brokered by LPT Realty · BRE #02133991 · NMLS 2020335
Equal Housing Opportunity.
Disclaimer: This post is general information only, not an appraisal or legal, tax or financial advice; data comes from the public sources linked above, is believed reliable but not guaranteed, and can change at any time.